降息预期摆动，??震荡整理

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is trading in a range between 4000 - 4200 dollars. In the short - term, precious metals will continue to trade in a range. As PCE and GDP data are released, the market will re - price the Fed's path and the dollar interest rate center, and directional fluctuations are expected to resume in the second half of the week. The price of London Gold should be monitored in the range of [3950, 4200], and London Silver in the range of [48, 53] [1][3] - The market's core contradiction revolves around the December interest - rate cut path. The Fed faces a "data vacuum period" before the interest - rate meeting, and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut is fluctuating. The upper driving force for gold prices is limited, but the bottom - support factors are still solid, resulting in gold price fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Multiple Fed officials, including Powell's allies Daly and Williams, support another interest - rate cut in December, which has rapidly increased the market's expectation of Fed easing [2] - The Trump administration is considering approving the sale of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China due to the easing of bilateral relations [2] - On the evening of November 24, the heads of state of China and the United States had a phone call [2] Price Logic - Gold is in a volatile range with weak upward and downward driving forces. The core market contradiction is centered on the December interest - rate cut path. The Fed faces a "data vacuum period" before the interest - rate meeting, and internal differences have intensified, causing the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut to swing. The dollar is in high - level consolidation [3] - The upper driving force for gold prices is limited, but the bottom - support factors are solid, including the risk premium of geopolitical events, stable central - bank gold purchases, and the market's optimistic expectation of the medium - term interest - rate cut path. The intersection of long and short factors leads to gold price fluctuations [3] - In the short term, precious metals will maintain a range - bound pattern. After the release of PCE and GDP data, the market will re - price the Fed's path and the dollar interest - rate center, and directional fluctuations are expected to resume in the second half of the week [3] Index Information - On November 24, 2025, the commodity index was 2228.09, up 0.46%; the commodity 20 index was 2528.06, up 0.43%; the industrial products index was 2195.71, up 0.52%; the PPI commodity index was 1335.17, up 0.55% [41] - The precious metals index on November 24, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.59%, a 5 - day increase of 0.98%, a 1 - month increase of 0.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 48.96% [42]