白糖周报：白糖市场震荡下行，供应压力主导行情-20251125

Report Title - "Sugar Market Oscillates Downward, Supply Pressure Dominates the Market - Sugar Weekly Report from November 17th to 21st, 2025" [1] Report Author - Yang Jiangtao [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current sugar market is in a unilateral downward phase. The core contradiction lies in the global supply surplus (ISO forecasts a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season) and the pressure from the listing of new domestic sugar, coupled with the suppression of increased imports, causing prices to continuously break through key support levels. The short - term downward trend has not been reversed. It is expected that sugar futures will continue to search for a bottom in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and attention should be paid to the performance of the key support level at 5,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Review - In the futures market, the closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract decreased by 1.20% from 14.96 to 14.78, and the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract decreased by 2.14% from 5,470 to 5,353. In the spot market, the current price in Nanning decreased by 3.18% to 5,480, in Liuzhou by 3.19% to 5,470, and in Kunming by 1.26% to 5,470. The current price of Rizhao Lingyunhai remained unchanged at 5,830. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 35.00% to 117. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7.55% to 7,971, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.39% to 8,154. The bullish ratio of Zhengzhou sugar decreased by 10 percentage points to 10%, the bearish ratio increased by 10 percentage points to 55%, and the neutral ratio remained unchanged at 35% [5] 3.1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 3.1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Major Domestic Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - In October, sugar imports reached 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.7%. From January to October, cumulative imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. Imported sugar continues to suppress the domestic market [3] 3.2.6 Major Sugar Importing Countries of China - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazilian sugar, the in - quota processing cost increased by 1.60% to 3,929, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 1.64% to 5,010. The in - quota import profit decreased by 4.02% to 1,910, and the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 10.66% to 830. For Thai sugar, the in - quota processing cost increased by 1.32% to 3,985, the out - of - quota processing cost increased by 1.38% to 5,083. The in - quota import profit decreased by 3.64% to 1,855, and the out - of - quota import profit decreased by 10.20% to 757 [30] 3.3 International Market Fundamentals 3.3.1 Available Sugar Volume in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content