黑色建材日报：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行-20251125

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Downward Bias [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: Sideways in the Short Term, Supply Remains Loose in the Long Term [7] Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - sentiment, with prices oscillating. The inventory pressure of finished products has been significantly relieved, but the future demand situation needs attention [1]. - The iron ore market sentiment is positive, with prices rising slightly. However, the supply - demand imbalance is intensifying, and prices may face great pressure in the future [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices moving sideways. The coking coal supply is gradually recovering, and the coke cost support is weakening [4]. - The thermal coal market has increasing wait - and - see sentiment, with prices oscillating. The supply is tightening in the short term, but the long - term supply remains loose [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3089 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume was good, with the national building materials trading volume at 13110 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure of finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved month - on - month, while the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices [1]. - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures prices rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports increased slightly. The total transaction volume of major ports was 1.121 million tons, a 22.38% increase. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 6.8% to 3.278 billion tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 24.2% to 2.817 billion tons. The inventory at 45 ports slightly increased to 15.102 billion tons [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with the total inventory rising continuously. Downstream steel mills have started to cut production, and there is a possibility of further cuts [2]. - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coke market was stable, but the bearish sentiment was increasing. Some coal mines in the coking coal production area resumed production, but the supply recovery was slow, and some coal mines started the second - round price cut [4]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The coking coal supply increased slightly, and the short - term market was weak. The coke cost support weakened, and the market sentiment turned negative [4]. - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for coking coal, sideways for coke. No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The prices in the main production areas oscillated. The shipments of large stations and power plants were stable, and some coal mines' prices increased slightly. The port inventory was rising, and the downstream procurement was cautious. The imported coal market was strong, with obvious price advantages [6]. - Strategy: Sideways in the short term, with the supply remaining loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to the non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]