铁铁铁铁铁铁周报：震荡之后的加速下行-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Manganese silicon: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Steel production - weak; Inventory - weak; Cost - profit - strong [3] - Ferrosilicon: Core view - strong; Month - spread - strong; Spot - neutral; Steel & magnesium production - neutral; Inventory - weak; Cost - profit - strong [4] 2. Core Views - Manganese silicon: This week, the futures market fluctuated and then accelerated its decline. The weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased slightly, while demand picked up slightly. Factory spot offers were scarce. The price of 6517 in the northern and southern markets was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and a large steel mill in Hebei tendered at 5820 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market was stable, with average port inquiries and some low - price inquiries. There was no obvious inventory accumulation of mainstream manganese ore, and no low - price sales, but overall trading was poor, and the trading center of some varieties moved down slightly. The market was concerned about the subsequent coke spot price game, and alloy profit was poor [3]. - Ferrosilicon: This week, the futures market fluctuated and declined. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the price at 5680 yuan/ton, a slight increase. Ferrosilicon production decreased, steel mill demand picked up slightly, and magnesium metal production continued to increase slightly. In terms of cost - profit, the current on - the - spot profitability in the main production areas was poor, the price of semi - coke was stable, and there was little room for a significant decline in the short term. The subsequent settlement of trading electricity prices could be monitored [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - Total port inventory of manganese ore was 426.3 tons, with a slight de - stocking compared to the previous period. Tianjin Port's inventory decreased slightly to 366 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year, while Qinzhou Port's inventory increased to 59.8 tons, at a historically low level in recent years [14]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore was 252.1 tons, with a slight de - stocking; Gabonese ore was 24 tons, also with a slight de - stocking and far lower than the same period last year; Australian ore inventory was 37.5 tons, with a slight de - stocking and slightly lower than the same period last year [18]. Manganese Ore Price - The price of Gabonese lumps at Tianjin Port was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps were 39.7 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree. The supply - demand game in the manganese ore market intensified, quotes remained firm, and trading adjusted narrowly [21]. Production - As of November 21, the weekly production of silicon - manganese decreased to 19.69 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased to 13920 tons/day, in Ningxia to 6375 tons/day, in Yunnan to 1320 tons/day, in Guizhou it remained at 2000 tons/day, and in Guangxi it remained at 1535 tons/day [25]. Demand - As of November 21, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 12.14 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 849.91 tons compared to the previous period. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data decreased slightly, lower than the historical average [34]. Price - The price in the Inner Mongolia market was around 5520 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it was 5650 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group tendered at 5820 yuan/ton [44]. Chemical Coke Price - The price of chemical coke was stable. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa were 1290, 1230, and 1240 yuan/ton respectively. The coke futures market declined significantly, and the market was concerned about the subsequent spot price game and the follow - up situation of chemical coke [47]. Production Profit - The immediate profit of silicon - manganese was low, and the north - south differentiation intensified [51]. Month - spread - As of November 20, the 1 - 5 month - spread of manganese silicon was - 66 yuan/ton, with continuous low - level fluctuations [55]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated and consolidated, and the basis did not change significantly. As of November 20, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 10.66 tons. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [59]. Ferrosilicon Production - As of November 21, on the supply side, the weekly production was 10.83 tons, a slight decrease compared to the previous period. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5500 tons, in Qinghai was 1980 tons, in Ningxia was 3730 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2630 tons [70]. Demand - Steel mill demand for ferrosilicon picked up slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 1.95 tons, lower than the same period last year [75]. - The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port was 2325 US dollars/ton, and the market price was 16050 yuan/ton, with an overall slight increase. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 19005 tons, continuing to increase slightly. The magnesium ingot spot market was stable, with a growing wait - and - see atmosphere. There were both fear - of - high - price and fear - of - falling emotions among buyers. Some traders had locked in December demand in advance, so trading slowed down significantly. Currently, magnesium plant quotes remained unchanged, and they were reluctant to offer further discounts [85]. Export - As of November 20, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 1080 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade ferrosilicon was 1030 US dollars/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period. In October, the import volume of ferrosilicon increased slightly compared to the previous period, while the export volume decreased significantly, lower than the same period last year [95]. Raw Material - As of November 21, the quotes of mainstream semi - coke small materials remained stable. The current prices were 820 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 920 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 810 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of oxidized iron scale was 720 yuan/ton [102]. Production Profit - As of November 20, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon was in the red, with significant losses in Shaanxi and Qinghai. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai were - 241, - 472, - 596, and - 580 yuan/ton respectively [112]. Month - spread - As of November 20, the 1 - 5 month - spread of ferrosilicon was 10 yuan/ton, strengthening compared to the previous period [115]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures market fluctuated and consolidated, and the ferrosilicon basis fluctuated slightly. As of November 20, the basis was - 210 yuan/ton. As of November 20, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4.47 tons. Attention should be paid to the recovery of warehouse receipts [120]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply, production, and import, total demand, steel consumption, export, net export, surplus, cumulative year - on - year production growth, and cumulative year - on - year consumption growth are presented in the balance sheet [122]. Ferrosilicon - From June 2025 to May 2026, the total supply, production, import, total demand, domestic consumption, including consumption by crude steel and magnesium metal, export, net export, surplus, cumulative year - on - year production growth, and cumulative year - on - year consumption growth are presented in the balance sheet [123].