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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The core view on sugar is neutral - bearish. In the context of the global sugar production increase cycle, although the sugar price is close to the historically low - valuation range, there is still no obvious upward driving force. It needs additional weather - driven factors to break out of the bottom - range oscillation. Considering the weak intensity of this La Nina, the supply - demand situation may not reverse until the 26/27 sugar - crushing season [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 ICE Sugar - After the Brazilian sugar production became clearer, the price rose periodically due to India's lower - than - expected production increase, and the overall market was in a range - bound pattern. The market had high - yield expectations for Brazil, but the high - yield expectations continuously suppressed the market. Although Brazil maintained production with a record - high sugar - production rate, institutions began to lower the forecast of Brazil's final sugar output. As Brazil's sugar production exceeded that of the previous year due to the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the market expected Brazil's production to recover, and the sugar price continued to decline [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Sugar - As the raw sugar price fell, there was an import profit in the far - month contracts, and the import volume was expected to increase after May. The far - month contracts were still under the expectation of the opening of imported syrup, so the market showed a back structure. During the Spring Festival, the domestic sugar market had a prosperous production and sales situation. From July to October, the increasing imports led to a decline in domestic prices, and the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage was realized. The domestic price challenged the new - sugar production cost [9]. 3.2 International Market: Production Increase Cycle 3.2.1 Global Sugar Market - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the global sugar market would have a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. The sugar production was expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption would only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The global sugar market had a supply - demand gap of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season. The expected production increase in the 2025/26 season would likely continue to suppress the sugar price in the next year [12]. 3.2.2 Major Producing Countries - Brazil: In the second half of October, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year. As of the second half of October in the 2025/26 season, ethanol production also increased year - on - year in the short term but decreased in the cumulative amount. The Brazilian government approved an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline. As of the week of November 19, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports decreased. Although the ATR was low, Brazil's sugar production exceeded that of the previous year due to the high sugar - making ratio. Currently, the raw - sugar price was below Brazil's production cost, and the sugar - making ratio began to decline [20][38][39]. - India: The 2025/26 season's sugar production (excluding the amount for ethanol production) was expected to be 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol use) was 30.95 million tons. The sugar - crushing season in Uttar Pradesh had started. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) urged the government to revise the minimum sugar sales price and ethanol procurement price [44][48]. - Thailand: The expected production increase remained basically unchanged, and the impact of the Thai market, especially on China, mainly came from syrup exports [50]. 3.2.3 Weather Impact - The La Nina phenomenon was expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter and was most likely to turn into a normal El Nino - Southern Oscillation state from January to March 2026. La Nina might cause drought in the central - southern region of Brazil during the 2025 - 2026 sugar - cane growing season, potentially affecting the 26/27 production, but the impact was uncertain due to the weak intensity of this La Nina. It was not expected to affect the planting seasons in India and Thailand [60]. 3.3 Domestic Market: Surge in Imports - Import Situation: There was a clear profit window for out - of - quota imports this year, and the domestic market was hit by a large amount of imported sugar from July to October. The import volume was expected to remain high in November. The price of processed new sugar was 5750 - 5890 yuan/ton. The control on Thai syrup was restarted, and the cumulative import volume of syrup and syrup + pre - mixed powder decreased significantly year - on - year [72][81]. - Production and Sales: As of the end of October, 29 sugar mills had started operation, one less than the same period last year. The sugar production was 413,400 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons year - on - year, while the sales volume was 91,600 tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons year - on - year. New sugar was sold at a high price due to cost support, and the 01 - contract position was still increasing [94]. - Price Outlook: The basis was converging. In terms of the monthly spread, the near - end spot price was supported by cost and was more likely to form a positive - arbitrage trend. In the long term, the raw - sugar price was under pressure, but the downside was limited. The Zhengzhou sugar price was supported by new - sugar cost in the short term but was suppressed by imported sugar in the long term. In 2026, attention should be paid to the expected differences between the production increase expectations and actual production in India and Thailand, as well as the impact of La Nina on Brazil's winter precipitation and sugar - cane yield [103].