碳酸锂日评：仍具回调空间-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The current market trading warmed up, and the spot premium expanded. Considering the current strong supply and demand, the repeated news of the resumption of production of Jiangnan lithium mines, the record - high weekly production of lithium carbonate, the strong wait - and - see sentiment of downstream, the warming up of the spot market trading, the weakening of power demand, and the exchange's move to cool down the market, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high levels, and speculators can go short on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - On November 24, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 90200 yuan/ton, 90480 yuan/ton, 90780 yuan/ton, and 90780 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 760 yuan/ton, 540 yuan/ton, and 380 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 454612 hands (-683212), and the open interest was 365078 hands (-46249) [1] Spot Market Data - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 92150 yuan/ton (-150), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 89750 yuan/ton (-150). The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1071 US dollars/ton (-18), and the average prices of different types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also decreased to varying degrees [1] Inventory Data - The registered warehouse receipts were 26510 tons (-338). The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2052 tons compared to the previous week [1] Supply and Demand Data - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide increased, and that of lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries decreased. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments weakened, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1] Industry News - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to sign a "2026 - 2030 Cooperation Framework Agreement" with Huayou Holding Group on lithium salt product business cooperation. Huayou Holding Group is expected to purchase 221400 tons of lithium salt products from the company between 2026 and 2030 [1]