苯乙烯产业链早报-20251125

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The view is to wait for short - selling opportunities for styrene, but the upside space may also be large, with the contract being eb2512 [5]. - In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. Domestic production will increase significantly after the resumption of refinery operations. Import volume is 970,000 tons more than last year, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 20%. The demand growth of downstream products has slowed down. Under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the inventory pressure of pure benzene may still be large [5]. - The pattern of styrene in the second half of the year may be weaker than the previous period. Supply will increase with the restart of domestic and foreign plants and the commissioning of new capacities. The growth of downstream demand is weak, and the high - profit state of styrene may be difficult to sustain. Pay attention to the opportunities of basis decline and profit compression [5]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Day - to - day Description - Crude oil is running weakly overall. The profit of domestic pure benzene has been continuously compressed to a relatively low level, while the non - integrated profit of styrene has been at a high overall valuation recently [9]. Styrene Industry Chain Overview - The report shows the styrene industry chain, including the sources of benzene, production methods of styrene, and its downstream products such as EPS, PS, ABS, etc [10]. Industrial Chain Daily Data - Toluene Spread: Data on the spread between toluene and other products in different regions are presented, including the spread between toluene and naphtha in the Americas, and the spread between benzene and toluene in the Americas, Europe, and Asia [13][14]. - Pure Benzene Spread and Profit: Information on the profit of domestic pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, and various spreads of pure benzene is provided, such as the spread between Chinese CFR and South Korean FOB [13][29]. - Other Downstream Profits of Pure Benzene: Profits of downstream products of pure benzene like caprolactam, phenol, adipic acid, aniline, and the comprehensive profit of pure benzene downstream are shown [31]. - Styrene Profit and Spread: Data on non - integrated and integrated (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) profits of styrene, import profit, and various spreads are given, including the spread between South China and East China [13][32]. - EB Inventory Situation: Inventory data of styrene in different regions and overall inventory data are presented, including the inventory of mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu and South China, and the total inventory of styrene factories and ports [32][34]. - EB Downstream Profit: Profits of styrene downstream products such as EPS, GPPS, and ABS are shown [34]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participation roles in the styrene industry chain are given corresponding operation suggestions, including inventory management and procurement management strategies, as well as relevant hedging derivatives and ratios [6]. Attention Data - Pay attention to port inventory data on Mondays and Wednesdays, styrene factory inventory data on Thursdays, styrene downstream inventory data on Thursdays, and pure benzene industry chain operation data on Fridays [7].