美联储降息预期摇摆，黄金价值持续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold will continue to demonstrate its unique allocation value in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, monetary policy shifts, ongoing trade uncertainties, and recurring geopolitical risks. Short - term fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations only limit gold's upward movement but do not reverse the bullish trend [3][12] - The Fed's interest - rate cut path may be "stop - and - go" due to inflation stickiness and economic data fluctuations. Policy expectation revisions will be a key factor affecting the volatility rhythm of precious metals [3][12] - Global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine provide support and increase the volatility of precious metals [3][12] Summary by Related Content Fed Policy and Personnel Changes - In 2026, the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee will undergo a major personnel reshuffle. Fed Chair Powell's term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump's administration is accelerating the selection of a new chair. Five final candidates have been short - listed, with a possible pre - Christmas 2025 announcement. This may lead to a "dual leadership" situation in the first half of 2026 [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February 2026. His retirement and the selection of his successor will be an important window to observe the White House's influence on the Fed. The Fed's internal policy differences will become more complex, with the dovish camp strengthening and the hawkish camp remaining a counterbalance [7] - Any news of personnel changes may cause the market to re - evaluate the direction of monetary policy, directly affecting precious - metal prices. Investors should closely monitor these changes to predict the 2026 precious - metal market volatility [8] Gold Market Performance in 2025 Q3 - The global gold market showed strong performance in Q3 2025, with both supply and demand booming. Total demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,313 tons, a record quarterly high, a 3% year - on - year increase. The demand value soared 44% year - on - year to $146 billion. Supply also increased by 3% to 1,313 tons, with mine production rising seasonally to 977 tons and recycled gold supply remaining at a high of 344 tons [8] - The LBMA gold price hit 13 record highs in Q3, with a quarterly average price of $3,456.54 per ounce, a 40% year - on - year increase [8] Gold Market Demand Structure - Investment demand continued to dominate the market in Q3 2025. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons, and demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Gold jewelry consumption decreased to 371 tons but the consumption value increased to $4.1 billion due to rising gold prices [9] - Global gold ETFs' significant increase in positions drove up the total holdings, with North American and Asian markets being the main sources of capital inflows. As of November 20, 2025, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased by 19.13% compared to the end of 2024, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [9] Price Trends and Investment Suggestions - The COMEX gold futures contract may form strong support in the range of $3,900 - $4,000 per ounce. If it can effectively break through the $4,200 mark, the next target may be around $4,400 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures contract may fluctuate in the range of 900 - 950 yuan per gram [4][13] - Silver is more elastic due to the resonance of supply - demand tightness and financial attributes. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position strategy when gold prices pull back, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision path, inflation data inflection points, and geopolitical situations [4][13]