光大期货能化商品日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, natural rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: The potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the increasing probability of an interest rate cut in December have driven up oil prices, but there are still uncertainties, so short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1] - Fuel Oil: The spot supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, but the arrival volume in December may tighten. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand, and the absolute prices of FU and LU are temporarily weak [2] - Asphalt: The current spot market still exerts pressure on the futures market. The social inventory is about 15% higher than the same period in previous years, and the downstream demand continues to weaken. The market is expected to be in a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [2] - Polyester: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The PX fundamentals have strong expectations but weak reality, and the near - month price is under pressure. The PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and the price will follow the raw material price. The ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2][4] - Natural Rubber: The supply and demand are both weak. After the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the 01 contract increases. The futures price is expected to be supported [4] - Methanol: Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a significant decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. The port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving the methanol price to rebound, but there is an upper limit, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] - Polyolefins: The supply will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken. The market will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride: The supply remains high, and the domestic demand slows down. The fundamental driving force is weak, but the price may bottom - out and fluctuate, and short - term attention can be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, WTI January contract rose $0.78 to $58.84 per barrel, a 1.34% increase; Brent January contract rose $0.81 to $63.37 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; SC2601 closed at 449.4 yuan per barrel, up 4.2 yuan per barrel, a 0.94% increase. The US proposed a 28 - point new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. From January to October 2025, Kazakhstan's crude oil and condensate production increased by 14.3% year - on - year to 83.614 million tons [1] - Fuel Oil: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.67% to 2512 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2601, fell 2.44% to 3041 yuan per ton. Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the Western market in November are expected to be 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 million tons in October [2] - Asphalt: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, rose 0.82% to 3060 yuan per ton. The current spot market still pressures the futures market, and the refineries are still releasing a large number of low - price contracts. The social inventory is about 15% higher than the same period in previous years [2] - Polyester: TA601 closed at 4680 yuan per ton on Monday, up 0.3%; EG2601 closed at 3884 yuan per ton, up 2%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average production and sales rate of 40% - 50%. The MEG port inventory in the East China main port area on November 24 was about 732,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2] - Natural Rubber: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber, RU2601, rose 80 yuan per ton to 15,320 yuan per ton; the main contract of NR fell 10 yuan per ton to 12,275 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 10 yuan per ton to 10,395 yuan per ton. From November 16 to 21, the natural rubber inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 0.48 million tons to 74,100 tons, a 6.93% increase [4] - Methanol: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2053 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1987.5 yuan per ton. The domestic device operation is stable, and the supply has returned to a high level. Iranian devices have stopped due to gas restrictions, and there are still plans to stop in the future [5] - Polyolefins: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6300 - 6500 yuan per ton. The supply will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken [5] - Polyvinyl Chloride: On Monday, the price in the East China PVC market was adjusted strongly, and the price in the North China market was raised. The supply remains high, and the domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - It shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on November 24 and 21, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week. As of the week of November 21, US crude oil inventory is expected to increase by about 650,000 barrels. Fed Governor Waller said that the US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: It includes the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][28] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][31][32][33][35][37][39] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It includes the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][42][43][44][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It shows the spread charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][61][62][63][65][69] - 4.5 Production Profits: It includes the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66][67] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - It introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [71][72][73][74]