光大期货金融期货日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market closed up with fluctuations on November 24, 2025, with National Defense and Military Industry leading the gains and TMT strengthening. The Wind All - A index rose 0.62%, with a trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.26%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.76%, while the SSE 50 Index fell 0.18% and the CSI 300 Index fell 0.12%. After the liquidity rally since June ended, the market refocused on fundamentals. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector. However, these themes have had large gains since June, and lack further catalysts near the end of the year, entering a volatile market in November. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclicals are in a volatile recovery, with limited short - term prospects for a fundamental bull market. Market trading volume, volatility, and risk appetite are decreasing, and the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Overseas technology stocks also face expectation divergence, with concerns about AI's actual profitability, an economic data vacuum due to the US government shutdown, and a hawkish Fed stance on a December rate cut leading to a correction in US technology stocks last week [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On November 24, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.16%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.01%. The central bank conducted 338.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on November 24, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, realizing a net injection of 5.57 billion yuan. Liquidity is reasonably abundant, but the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is low, so the expectation of a central bank rate cut is weak, and the bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, as November enters a brief domestic economic data vacuum period, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [1][2]. 3. Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On November 24, 2025, compared with November 21, 2025, IH decreased by 2.0 points (-0.07%) to 2,944.4; IF increased by 6.8 points (0.15%) to 4,435.2; IC increased by 57.6 points (0.85%) to 6,827.6; IM increased by 77.0 points (1.10%) to 7,095.2 [3]. - Stock Indexes: The SSE 50 Index decreased by 5.3 points (-0.18%) to 2,950.6; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 5.6 points (-0.12%) to 4,448.0; the CSI 500 Index increased by 51.6 points (0.76%) to 6,869.0; the CSI 1000 Index increased by 88.7 points (1.26%) to 7,156.4 [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS increased by 0.008 points (0.01%) to 102.42; TF increased by 0.14 points (0.13%) to 106.00; T decreased by 0.095 points (-0.09%) to 108.34; TL increased by 0.19 points (0.16%) to 115.76 [3]. 4. Market News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated on November 24 that due to recent wrong remarks on the Taiwan issue by Japanese leaders, which have damaged the foundation and atmosphere of China - Japan - South Korea cooperation, the current conditions are not suitable for holding a China - Japan - South Korea leaders' meeting [4]. 5. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, inter - delivery spreads of different - term treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][18][19]. - Exchange Rates: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [22][23][26][27]. 6. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [29]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [29].