——机械行业海关总署出口月报（十七）：同比高基数及日历效应拖累十月机械出口数据-20251125

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Views - The mechanical export data for October is affected by high year-on-year bases and calendar effects, leading to a significant decline in export growth rates for various products [3][4] - The export amounts for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers to North America have shown a continuous decline, with electric tools experiencing a six-month consecutive drop [4][7] - Emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are driving growth in capital goods exports, particularly for forklifts and industrial sewing machines [5][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Goods - The export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers from January to October 2025 are -0.4%, -6%, and 37% respectively, with October showing declines of -17%, -16%, and -15% [3] - Exports to North America for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers have seen year-to-date declines of -19%, -9%, and -9% respectively [4] - Companies such as QuanFeng Holdings, JuXing Technology, and Greebo are recommended for investment focus [7] Capital Goods - Forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines have varying export markets, with Asia being the largest for industrial sewing machines [5] - The cumulative export growth rates for forklifts, machine tools, industrial sewing machines, and mining machinery from January to October 2025 are 0%, 13%, 13%, and 21% respectively [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Jack Group for potential investments in industrial capital goods [8] Mining Machinery - The cumulative export growth rate for mining machinery is 21% from January to October 2025, indicating a positive outlook for global mining capital expenditures [8]