国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251125

Report Overview - Date: November 25, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Investment Ratings for Different Commodities - Palm Oil: Temporarily treated as weak due to doubts about产地去库存 [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Expected to trade in a range, with a strategy to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2][4] - Soybean Meal: Expected to trade sideways [2][10] - Soybean No. 1: Expected to trade sideways [2][10] - Corn: Expected to be slightly bullish [2][13] - Sugar: Expected to trade in a narrow range [2][17] - Cotton: Near - term contracts expected to outperform forward contracts [2][21] - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][28] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, price trends, and relevant industry news, to help investors make informed decisions regarding agricultural futures investments [2][5][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the palm oil主力 contract was 8,486 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.75%, and 8,454 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.38%. Trading volume decreased by 114,593 hands, and open interest decreased by 24,130 hands. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [5] - News: Malaysia's use of palm - derived raw materials to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has not raised negative concerns among European buyers as it meets sustainability standards. The ministry plans to implement a 1% SAF mandatory blending standard for international flights departing from Kuala Lumpur International Airport [6] - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) [9] Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The closing price of the soybean oil主力 contract was 8,168 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.27%, and 8,174 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.07%. Trading volume decreased by 120,156 hands, and open interest decreased by 7,040 hands. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [5] - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - Fundamentals: For DCE豆一2601, the closing price was 4,150 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.05%, and 4,132 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.17%. For DCE豆粕2601, the closing price was 3,011 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.20%, and 3,014 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.30%. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [10] - News: On November 24, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. Traders were waiting for signs of China's further purchases of US soybeans and details of the latest call between Washington and Beijing. China bought 158.4 million tons of US soybeans last week, and an additional 123,000 tons were sold on Monday. As of November 21, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 81% complete, 5 percentage points slower than the same period last year [10][12] - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) for both soybean meal and soybean No. 1 [12] Corn - Fundamentals: The northeast acquisition average price was unchanged, while the Jinzhou closing price was 2,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Guangdong Shekou price was 2,380 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of C2601 was 2,220 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.69%, and 2,231 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.50% [14] - News: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 30 yuan/ton, and container - shipped first - class grain prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. Guangdong Shekou bulk and container prices increased by 20 yuan/ton [15] - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) [16] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 14.85 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,650 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,370 yuan/ton [17] - News: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports were 4.2 million tons, up 13% year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October, an increase of 210,000 tons [17] - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) [20] Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,585 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.93%, and 13,620 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.26%. Spot prices in different regions showed small changes [21] - News: Cotton spot trading was stable, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases. Pure - cotton yarn prices were generally stable, and market sales were sluggish [22] - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) [26] Peanut - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The closing price of PK601 was 7,794 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [28] - News: In different regions such as Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, peanut prices were generally strong, with varying degrees of supply and demand situations [29] - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) [30]