国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251125

Report Overview - Date: November 25, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: The inventory accumulation rhythm has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from macro and news factors [2][4] - Stainless steel: Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside potential is limited [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading has improved, and the high - level range oscillation continues [2][9] - Industrial silicon: The bottom support of the futures price is obvious [2] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [2][12] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115,530 yuan, down 1,220 yuan from T - 5. The closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,335 yuan, down 80 yuan from T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed different degrees of changes [4] - Macro and Industry News: There were multiple events including the takeover of an Indonesian nickel mine by the forestry working group, China's suspension of non - official subsidies for Russian copper and nickel imports, and various policies and regulations in Indonesia and the US tariff threat [4][5][6] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 90,480 yuan, down 4,720 yuan from T - 5. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 92,040 yuan, down 3,680 yuan from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and prices of related products in the industrial chain [9] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and the UK government announced plans to support domestic lithium production [10][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Si2601 was 8,940 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan from T - 5. The closing price of PS2601 was 53,315 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, basis, and prices and profits of related products [12] - Macro and Industry News: The National Energy Administration released power industry statistics, showing significant growth in solar and wind power installed capacity [13][14] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [14]