中泰期货晨会纪要-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, for individual commodities, there are bias - based ratings: - Commodities with a "偏空" (bearish) bias: Corn starch, Corn, Palm oil, Zhengzhou cotton, etc. [4] - Commodities with a "偏多" (bullish) bias: Methanol, Shanghai aluminum, Asphalt, etc. [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - economy: Sino - US relations are generally stable and positive. The central bank's MLF operations show a moderately loose monetary policy. The US and Ukraine have a new peace - agreement draft, and the US economic data release is postponed. Some Fed officials advocate for a December interest - rate cut [6][7][8]. - Financial Markets: - Stock Index Futures: Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines for now. The A - share market is volatile, and the index shows limited anti - fragility [10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Maintain a bullish view on the bond market, as the LPR quote is in line with expectations, and monetary easing may come later but is likely to occur [11]. - Black Commodities: - Steel and Ore: Short - term volatility or rebound is expected, and a bearish mindset is maintained for the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to macro - policy expectations and the fundamentals of supply and demand [12][13]. - Coal and Coke: Prices may continue to be weakly volatile in the short - term, with potential supply contractions in the long - term but short - term supply increases and demand weakening [14][15]. - Ferroalloys: Long - term attention can be paid to the opportunity to go long on ferrosilicon, and for manganese silicon, stay on the sidelines for now. Consider the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage opportunity [15]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: - Zinc: Hold short positions at high levels. Zinc prices are in a volatile downward trend with potential for short - term rebounds [19]. - Lead: Hold short positions cautiously. Lead prices are in a downward trend, and social inventories are decreasing [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term price is weak, but long - term demand is expected to support the price [21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Both are expected to continue to move in a volatile manner, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions [22][23]. - Agricultural Products: - Cotton: Prices are in a low - level volatile state, with high supply pressure and weak demand in the short - term [25][26]. - Sugar: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and prices are under pressure, but cost support limits the decline [26][27]. - Eggs: Spot prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short [28][29]. - Apples: Prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [30]. - Corn: Observe the upward pressure on the futures price. The current price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and there may be a correction in the future [31][32]. - Jujubes: Stay on the sidelines for now [33]. - Pigs: In the short - term, supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to be weak. In the long - term, a decline in the number of sows is beneficial to future prices [33][34]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: Prices are in a long - term downward trend, and it is advisable to try short positions at high levels [36]. - Fuel Oil: Prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices, and the supply - demand structure is loose [37][38]. - Plastics: Prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with supply pressure and some cost support [39]. - Rubber: Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather conditions, and there is a logic for the ru - nr spread to widen [40]. - Synthetic Rubber: The short - term trend is weak, and it is advisable to hold short positions [41]. - Methanol: The short - term trend is weakly volatile, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to go long in the long - term [42]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a volatile mindset [44]. - Asphalt: The price fluctuation range is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter - storage game [44][45]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The short - term trend is strong, but the upward space is limited [46]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Prices are expected to turn weak from strong [46][47]. - Pulp: Prices are expected to enter a volatile range, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [47][48]. - Logs: The short - term trend is bearish [49]. - Urea: Prices are expected to move in a wide - range volatile manner [49]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro News - On the evening of November 24th, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the positive development of Sino - US relations and China's stance on the Taiwan issue [6] - The central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25th, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy [6] - Industrial Fubon clarified market rumors, stating normal operations in the fourth quarter [7] - Xiaomi's founder, Lei Jun, increased his shareholding by over HK$100 million, and the company repurchased shares [7] - China will implement a space exploration satellite plan during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [7] - The US and Ukraine completed a 19 - point peace - agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided [8] - The US cancelled the release plan for the third - quarter GDP forecast, and inflation data will be released on December 5th [8] - Some Fed officials advocate for a December interest - rate cut [8] Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines. The A - share market is volatile, and the index shows limited anti - fragility. Overseas data and market sentiment affect the index [10] Treasury Bond Futures - Maintain a bullish view on the bond market. The LPR quote is in line with expectations, and monetary easing may come later. Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation this month [11][12] Black Commodities Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, pay attention to the impact of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference on market expectations. Fundamentally, demand is weak in the building materials sector but good in the coil sector. Supply is under pressure, and inventory is high. The short - term trend is volatile or with a rebound, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bearish [12][13] Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Supply may increase in the short - term but is expected to contract in the long - term. Demand is supported in the short - term, but potential negative feedback risks exist [14][15] Ferroalloys - Recommend long - term attention to the opportunity to go long on ferrosilicon, stay on the sidelines for manganese silicon, and consider the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage opportunity [15] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. Zinc prices are in a volatile downward trend, with domestic inventory decreasing and processing fees falling [19] Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. Lead prices are in a downward trend, and social inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show changes [20] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price is weak, but long - term demand is expected to support the price. Market sentiment is cooling, and prices will return to the fundamental level [21] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Both are expected to continue to move in a volatile manner, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. Industrial silicon has a weak supply - demand situation, and polysilicon has expectations for anti - involution policies [22][23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Prices are in a low - level volatile state, with high supply pressure and weak demand in the short - term. International and domestic supply and demand data show different trends [25][26] Sugar - The supply - demand situation is bearish, and prices are under pressure, but cost support limits the decline. International and domestic supply is abundant [26][27] Eggs - Spot prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short. The supply - demand situation is loose, and the inventory is high [28][29] Apples - Prices are expected to move in a volatile manner. The apple - storage season is ending, and consumption will affect future prices [30] Corn - Observe the upward pressure on the futures price. The current price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and there may be a correction in the future [31][32] Jujubes - Stay on the sidelines for now. The prices in production and sales areas are changing [33] Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to be weak. In the long - term, a decline in the number of sows is beneficial to future prices [33][34] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Prices are in a long - term downward trend, and it is advisable to try short positions at high levels. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand expectations affect prices [36] Fuel Oil - Prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices, and the supply - demand structure is loose. Pay attention to refinery maintenance and supply changes [37][38] Plastics - Prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with supply pressure and some cost support. The supply - demand situation is weak [39] Rubber - Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather conditions, and there is a logic for the ru - nr spread to widen. The domestic supply is approaching the end of the season [40] Synthetic Rubber - The short - term trend is weak, and it is advisable to hold short positions. The cost is falling, and the inventory is high [41] Methanol - The short - term trend is weakly volatile, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to import arrivals and inventory changes [42] Caustic Soda - Adopt a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures market shows changes in positions [44] Asphalt - The price fluctuation range is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter - storage game. Pay attention to crude oil prices and refinery production [44][45] Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend is strong, but the upward space is limited. The macro - environment and supply - demand structure affect the industry [46] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Prices are expected to turn weak from strong. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the season [46][47] Pulp - Prices are expected to enter a volatile range, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is stable [47][48] Logs - The short - term trend is bearish. The inventory is increasing, and the market is in the off - season [49] Urea - Prices are expected to move in a wide - range volatile manner. The spot price is stable, and the futures market shows position changes [49]