原油日报：降息预期升温，油价小幅反弹-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are maintaining a volatile trend. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks is slow, the Fed's dovish stance has increased the expectation of a December interest rate cut, boosting risk assets, and the new crude oil import quota issued by the Ministry of Commerce is expected to support China's crude oil imports at the end of the year [2] - Short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and a mid - term short - position allocation is recommended, with a strategy of shorting the calendar spread [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light sweet crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 78 cents to $58.84 per barrel, a 1.34% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery rose 81 cents to $63.37 per barrel, a 1.29% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.94% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices may fall to the $30 - 40 range in 2027. It maintains the average price forecast of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $58 per barrel, expects the average price of WTI crude oil in 2026 to be $54 per barrel, and forecasts the average price of Brent crude oil in 2027 to be $57 per barrel and WTI crude oil to be $53 per barrel [1] - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ismail Baghaei condemned the recent anti - Iran resolution passed by the IAEA Board of Governors, saying it was a "stain" on the designers and initiators, and that it interfered with the agency's operations and undermined its independence [1] - The US - Ukraine talks in Geneva showed progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but the November 27 deadline for the agreement may be extended to next week. European natural gas prices are still higher than before the 2022 energy crisis, but are now a fraction of the peak, and additional supply is expected to push prices down further in the coming years [1] - The board of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will increase oil reserves by 7 billion barrels to 120 billion barrels and establish a new company to manage an acid gas field, which is expected to produce 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas, 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate per day [1] - The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending November 21 was 419, up from 417 the previous week; the total number of US natural gas rigs was 127, up from 125 the previous week [1] Investment Logic - Oil prices are in a volatile state. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach a short - term agreement, the Fed's dovish remarks have increased the December interest rate cut expectation, and the new crude oil import quota is expected to support China's crude oil imports at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile; Mid - term: Short - position allocation, shorting the calendar spread [3] Risks - Downside risks: A peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4]