农产品日报：郑棉期价震荡反弹，纸浆走势依旧承压-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term range of Zhengzhou cotton prices is limited, with a mid - to long - term optimistic outlook after seasonal pressure. For sugar, short - term downward pressure exists but with limited downside and possible weak rebounds, while the long - term outlook is not optimistic. Pulp prices are expected to continue low - level oscillations due to insufficient fundamental improvement [2][5][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton (+0.93%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,574 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. From November 14 - 20, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 270,200 tons, with 84.6% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA report increased global cotton production in 2025/26, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to restocking. US cotton sales pressure has increased. In the short term, the external market is under pressure. Domestically, after the National Day, the expected new - cotton output decreased, and the seed - cotton purchase price rose, driving up Zhengzhou cotton prices. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the expected Xinjiang output has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, limiting the downside space [1] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short term, view cotton prices with an oscillatory mindset. In the long term, be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure and consider the opportunity to go long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,370 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%). The sugar spot price in Yunnan Kunming was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. As of November 22 - 24, 3 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production, and 2 more are expected to start soon. By the end of November, about 31 mills are expected to be in operation. Currently, 18 mills have started production, 26 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 129,000 tons, 268,000 tons less than last year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian supply in the second half of October was strong, and the Indian sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the sugar price. However, the short - term Indian exports are difficult to increase, and the Brazilian supply pressure is weakening, limiting the further decline of the raw - sugar price. In the Chinese market, the higher - than - expected imports and the start of sugar - mill production in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the downside. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp Market News and Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,490 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices showing an upward trend [5][6] Market Analysis - The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. The weak demand in Europe and the US and the insufficient domestic demand are the main factors suppressing the pulp price. Although there is new paper - production capacity, the effective demand is insufficient, and the paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the insufficient improvement in the pulp fundamentals, the price is expected to continue low - level oscillations [8]