国债期货日报：央行续作万亿MLF，国债期货全线收涨-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by the stock market, differences in Fed rate - cut expectations, and increased global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase; PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, a 2.38% decrease; manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, a 1.61% decrease [10]. - The US dollar index is 100.20, with a 0.01% increase; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1059, a 0.11% decrease; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, a 2.12% increase; DR007 is 1.47, a 2.05% increase; R007 is 1.51, a 1.24% decrease; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, a 0.08% decrease; AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, a 0.08% decrease [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, etc. [12][15][18][24] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance [27][34][35] 4. Spread Overview No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names related to the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [37][38][40] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate [40][42] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate [52] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate [59] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate [66] Market Analysis - Macro - aspect: On October 27, the central bank restarted the open - market treasury bond trading operation; on October 30, China and the US reached a three - aspect consensus. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year and retain the 10% rate. In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - Funding - aspect: From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue had a mild recovery, expenditure rhythm slowed down, and the fund shrank while special bonds issuance slowed. General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance was strong, and corporate and household financing demand was weak. On November 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 338.7 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.4%. The main repurchase rates showed a recent decline [2]. - Market - aspect: On November 24, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.51 yuan, and 115.76 yuan respectively, with price change rates of 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.06%, and 0.15%. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.048 yuan, - 0.009 yuan, - 0.018 yuan, and - 0.004 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].