尿素早评：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251125

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current urea price bottom may gradually become clear. Urea's rebound from the bottom is limited, and its valuation remains relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. A new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter, and winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. Strategically, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium and long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.97%), UR05 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.98%), UR09 decreased by 12 yuan/ton (-0.69%), and in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.61%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granular): Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.61%), Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.61%), while prices in Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged, while the melamine price in Shandong increased by 33 yuan/ton (0.64%) [1] 2. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1647 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1638 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1637 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 232,305 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium and long term [1]