新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-25）-20251125

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, rebar, and soda ash are rated as "Oscillating"; glass is rated as "Weak" [2]. - Financial: Shanghai 50, CSI 300, 2 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Rebounding"; 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Upward"; gold and silver are rated as "High - level Oscillating" [3]. - Light Industry: Logs are rated as "Bottom - level Oscillating"; pulp, double - offset paper are rated as "Weakly Oscillating" [4][6]. - Oils and Fats and Oilseeds: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "Range - bound"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 are rated as "Weakly Oscillating" [6]. - Agricultural Products: Live pigs are rated as "Weakly Bullish Oscillating" [7][9]. - Soft Commodities: Rubber is rated as "Oscillating"; PX, PTA are rated as "Oscillating"; MEG is rated as "Wide - range Oscillating"; PR is rated as "On - hold"; PF is rated as "On - hold" [12]. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different industries having their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors. Some industries are affected by global supply and demand, policy changes, and geopolitical events, while others are more influenced by domestic factors such as production capacity, inventory levels, and consumption demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, while 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons. Daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.28 tons. The demand core lies in the real - estate sector, with new construction at 2005 levels. The supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the iron - ore price will mainly oscillate strongly at a high level [2]. - Coal Coke: Affected by Mongolia's import target and heating - season supply - guarantee meetings, the coal - coke futures market tumbled. Although the fourth price increase for coke enterprises has been implemented, profit repair is limited. The supply concern in the coking - coal industry has intensified, and the market is in an adjustment state [2]. - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Downstream demand is weak, and winter - storage replenishment has not started. Steel prices depend on the implementation of output reduction and anti - "involution" policies. Currently, prices are in bottom - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to the impact of December's macro - policies on winter storage [2]. - Glass: Spot prices are weak, and the market has been declining since early November due to various events. Real - estate completion decline drags down demand, and inventory is increasing. Attention should be paid to production - line cold repairs and policies for potential market stabilization [3]. - Soda Ash: The market is in an oscillating state [2]. Financial - Stock Index Futures/Options: The market had short - term adjustments but remains optimistic in the medium term. High - tech industries are growing, with high - tech service and manufacturing revenues showing double - digit growth [3]. - Treasury Bonds: The 10 - year treasury - bond yield increased, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net injection of 557 billion yuan. The bond market is in a slight rebound trend [3]. - Gold and Silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central - bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and physical - gold demand in China are driving the price. Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical events are short - term influencing factors. Silver also shows a high - level oscillating trend [3][5]. Light Industry - Logs: Port daily shipments decreased, and inventory is under pressure. Spot prices are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated, and cost support for pulp prices is weakening. The paper - making industry's low profitability and high inventory lead to weak demand, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - Double - Offset Paper: Supply is stable, and the market is cautious. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: U.S. soybean crushing is at a record high, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain. Malaysian palm - oil production and inventory are high, and exports are weak. Domestic oil supply is abundant, and prices are expected to continue range - bound [6]. - Meals: The U.S. soybean production, exports, and ending stocks are all down, but the global soybean supply is still relatively loose. Domestic soybean - meal supply is sufficient, and demand is cautious. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The average trading weight shows mixed changes. Demand has recovered slightly, but with the increase in supply, the settlement price may face downward pressure. The slaughter - enterprise operating rate is slowly rising, and the average price of live pigs is expected to oscillate [7][9]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Raw - material prices in different regions are affected by weather. Production in Hainan is lower than expected. Demand from tire enterprises is weak, and inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely [12]. - Polyester: Different polyester products have different trends. PX and PTA are affected by oil prices and supply - demand changes; MEG has a long - term inventory pressure; PR and PF are affected by raw - material prices and demand [12].