浙商期货EGPF早报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - MEG is expected to trade in a range of [3700, 4250] yuan. The eg2601 contract is under pressure due to weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and weak expectations of new capacity additions in the fourth quarter. The inventory has accumulated slightly since the National Day, with a stock - building of about 7 - 8 tons in October and more obvious accumulation from November to December. Looking ahead, the value of ethylene glycol will likely show a bottom - consolidation trend. The absolute price range of ethylene glycol is estimated to be around 3700 - 4245 yuan, referring to the cost of the coal - based industry [4]. Summary by Directory EGPF Morning Report - Viewpoint: MEG will trade in the range of [3700, 4250] yuan. The eg2601 contract is under pressure. The price is mainly affected by cost, valuation, and new capacity expectations. The inventory situation and long - term supply outlook also influence the price [4]. - Operation Suggestions for the Industrial Chain: Different market participants (refineries, traders, end - customers, and coal - chemical production enterprises) are given different hedging and trading strategies based on their inventory and procurement situations [4]. Upstream Price - Price Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025: The price of naphtha CFR Japan increased from 562.00 to 563.00; the price of methanol in Taicang increased from 1989.00 to 2062.00, with a change of 73. Other prices such as动力煤 (Inner Mongolia Q5500) and ethylene in Northeast Asia remained unchanged [6]. EG Process Profits - Profit Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025: MEG import profit increased from 1.07 to 15.99 yuan/ton; MEG oil - based profit increased from - 1192.63 to - 1123.87 yuan/ton; MEG coal - based profit increased from - 972.00 to - 902.00 yuan/ton; MEG ethylene - based profit increased from - 750.77 to - 676.69 yuan/ton; MEG methanol - based profit decreased from - 1256.09 to - 1318.22 yuan/ton; MEG weighted profit increased from - 1104.06 to - 1038.67 yuan/ton [6]. EG Basis, Spread, and Position - Price and Spread Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025: EG2601 futures price increased from 3808.00 to 3884.00 yuan/ton; EG January basis decreased from 36.00 to 30.00 [6]. PF Basis and Profit - Price and Profit Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025: The price of direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6278 to 6488; the spot profit of direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 114.13 to 75.88; PF2512 closing price increased from 6148 to 6190; the profit of the short - fiber main contract on the futures market decreased from 32 to 31; the deep - discount spread increased from 130 to 298 [6].