Group 1: Research Views Steel Products - Yesterday, the rebar futures market fluctuated and rose. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 80,700 lots in positions. Spot prices increased, and trading volume rebounded. The inventory of building materials and hot-rolled coils decreased, and the total inventory pressure was significantly relieved. However, the market has entered the off-season, and the upward driving force for rebar prices is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term rebar futures market will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 rose. It closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease of 11,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, while that from other countries increased. The demand and inventory also changed. In the short term, the ore price shows a fluctuating trend [1]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures market declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1096.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.59%, with an increase of 1800 lots in positions. Due to factors such as winter environmental protection restrictions and coal mine safety inspections, the supply of coking coal is difficult to increase significantly. The market sentiment has weakened, and the procurement rhythm of some coking and steel enterprises has slowed down. It is expected that the short-term coking coal futures market will fluctuate widely [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1632.5 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 1.11%, with a decrease of 1325 lots in positions. The cost of coking coal has decreased, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises has improved. However, the demand from steel mills has decreased. It is expected that the short-term coke futures market will fluctuate widely [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5630 yuan/ton, up 0.5% month-on-month, with a decrease of 41,457 lots in positions to 398,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions is 5480 - 5670 yuan/ton. The northern basis point price is lower than the factory production cost, and the actual trading volume is still limited. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia has been postponed. It is expected that the short-term manganese silicon futures market will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and production changes in the main producing areas [1][2]. Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5456 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month-on-month, with an increase of 2936 lots in positions to 208,100 lots. The comprehensive price of ferrosilicon in various regions is about 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton. The production cost remains high, and some enterprises have reduced production. The demand has improved slightly, but the overall boost is limited. It is expected that the short-term ferrosilicon futures market will mainly fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the start-up, cost, and new round of steel tenders in the main producing areas [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest data and month-on-month changes of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various varieties such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit, spread, and other data [3]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [5][7][9][13]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [15][17][20][22]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report displays the inter - period contract spread trends of rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [24][31][32][36][40]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - The report presents the inter - variety contract spread trends of the main contracts, including the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the difference between double silicon, through charts [42][44][46]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report shows the profit trends of the main rebar contract, including the disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit, through charts [47][51]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].
黑色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 25 日）-20251125
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-11-25 05:38