有色商品日报（2025 年 11 月 25 日）-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly. The Fed's dovish stance on a December rate - cut has increased market expectations, briefly alleviating liquidity concerns. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warrants decreased. Demand is slowly recovering, but high copper prices are suppressing terminal demand, and the high inventory may restrict future copper prices. Without unexpected events, copper prices will show a high - level oscillating trend with low volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Northern environmental inspections mainly target the ore end, with some phased maintenance in northern alumina plants. The alumina social inventory has slightly decreased, and downstream raw material inventory is overstocked, pressuring prices. With the decline in the US rate - cut expectation, the macro - sentiment has turned cautious. The aluminum price has a short - term support but is still restricted [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE warrants increased. The nickel ore benchmark price slightly declined, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is weak. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material end is tight, but the ternary precursor in November decreased month - on - month. The primary nickel inventory pressure is obvious, and investors can consider buying at low prices, but should beware of macro - disturbances [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: The Fed's dovish attitude on a December rate - cut has raised market expectations. LME inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons, Comex inventory increased by 5,905 tons to 371,391 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 5,974 tons to 43,816 tons, and BC copper decreased by 25 tons to 6,177 tons. Demand is slowly warming up, but high inventory may limit future prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina AO2601 closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, up 0.07%, with an increase of 3,099 lots in positions. Shanghai aluminum AL2512 closed at 21,405 yuan/ton, up 0.12%, with a decrease of 4,542 lots in positions. Aluminum alloy AD2512 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, down 0.02%, with a decrease of 90 lots in positions. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,834 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in the north and inventory changes affect the price [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.75% to 14,730 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.69% to 116,100 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 468 tons to 253,482 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 708 tons to 34,493 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is weak, and the new - energy industry chain has a tight raw - material end [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On November 24, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 86,185 yuan/ton, up 415 yuan from November 21. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE warrants decreased by 5,974 tons [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,140 yuan/ton on November 24, down 20 yuan from November 21. SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3,869 tons on a weekly basis [4]. - Aluminum: On November 24, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from November 21. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.8 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - Nickel: On November 24, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 119,850 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan from November 21. The SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 778 tons on a weekly basis [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price on November 24 was 22,350 yuan/ton, down 0.7% from November 21. The social inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons on a weekly basis [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price on November 24 was 293,460 yuan/ton, up 0.5% from November 21. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 29 tons on a weekly basis [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won many awards. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst mainly researching aluminum and silicon at Everbright Futures Research Institute [47]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst mainly researching lithium and nickel at Everbright Futures Research Institute [48].