尿素早评20251125：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251125

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, from a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. In the long - term, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.97%), UR05 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.98%), UR09 decreased by 12 yuan/ton (-0.69%); in Shandong, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.61%) [1] - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices: remained unchanged in Henan, Hebei, and Northeast China; decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.61%) in Shandong and Jiangsu [1] - Upstream cost: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 33 yuan/ton (0.64%), and remained unchanged in Jiangsu [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 1 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1647 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1638 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1637 yuan/ton, and the position was 232305 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]