贵金属日报：美联储官员再放鸽，支撑贵金属价格-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core Viewpoints - Multiple Fed officials have expressed a dovish monetary policy stance. Although there is still uncertainty about a December rate cut, short-term market expectations for monetary easing have improved. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish range, and the silver price is expected to be slightly stronger than gold, with the gold-silver ratio expected to narrow [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of the pace of rate cuts, Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December due to the weak labor market, and he believes that the delayed economic reports after the December meeting may make the January decision more difficult. San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month, believing that the sudden deterioration of the job market is more likely and harder to control than a sudden rise in inflation. Geopolitically, the US and Ukraine have completed a new 19-point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided by Trump and Zelensky, and Russia believes the European peace plan is not constructive and does not serve its interests [2]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 933.98 yuan/gram and closed at 930.32 yuan/gram, a change of 0.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 935.60 yuan/gram and closed at 938.68 yuan/gram, up 0.90% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,715.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,808.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,574,854 lots, and the open interest was 347,468 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,890 yuan/kg and closed at 11,975 yuan/kg, up 1.41% from the afternoon close [3]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.029%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.54%, up 0.77 BP from the previous trading day [4]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 24, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 3,016 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 1,044 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 472,495 lots, a change of 8.79% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, in the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by -2,997 lots, and the short positions changed by 138 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,108,210 lots, a change of 14.26% from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF holdings were 1,040.57 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,258 tons, an increase of 11 tons from the previous trading day [6]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -10.56 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,173.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 78.79, a change of 2.55% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.48, a change of 3.24% from the previous trading day [7]. Fundamentals - On November 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,158 kg, a change of -2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 724,146 kg, a change of 106.05% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kg [8]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to be in a slightly bullish range, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 915 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram [9]. - Silver: The price is expected to maintain a slightly bullish range, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10]