新能源及有色金属日报：政策及情绪扰动仍在，多晶硅盘面维持宽幅震荡-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price is affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news, with a low valuation. If there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. The polysilicon futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,940 yuan/ton, a change of (-90) yuan/ton (-1.00%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 262,676 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 41,524 lots, a change of -854 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 (-50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 (-100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions declined slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - In terms of exports, in October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 45,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 36% and a year - on - year decrease of 31%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 606,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In terms of imports, the cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 8,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67%. The significant month - on - month decrease in exports in October was mainly due to export policy, with some export orders shipped in September and new orders in October also affected [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 (100) yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market continued to rise, and the price center shifted further upward. The current quoted price range was 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was stable at 13,000 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC quoted prices were concentrated at 13,200 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - The spot price decreased slightly. After the production reduction in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. Currently, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuates mainly due to overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low. If there is policy promotion, the futures price may have room to rise [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. - Cross - period: None [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4]. - Spot - futures: None [4]. - Options: None [4]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 24, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly. It opened at 53,600 yuan/ton and closed at 53,315 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.15% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 128,427 (126,266 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 187,876 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 271,000 tons, a month - on - month change of 1.50%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72 GW, a month - on - month change of 1.63%, the weekly polysilicon output was 27,100.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 1.11%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.78 GW, a month - on - month change of - 2.59% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (-0.06) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 (-0.02) yuan/piece [5]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W. The component production plan in November continued to decline as expected. An accident occurred in a component enterprise in East China over the weekend, which was expected to affect part of the component output [6]. Strategy - Both the supply and demand sides of polysilicon weakened, and the overall inventory pressure was large. The performance of the consumption side was average. Currently, the futures price was affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. The policies were still being promoted, and the futures price fluctuated greatly. Participants should pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption side performance was average, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate mainly [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: None [8]. - Cross - variety: None [8]. - Spot - futures: None [8]. - Options: None [8].