Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have fallen and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $135.09 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,380 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 35 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 10 yuan per ton [1] - Futures: On November 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,390 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,516 lots, and the open interest was 96,310 lots. The highest price was 22,445 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan per ton [2] - Inventory: As of November 24, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 151,000 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 47,425 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are increasing and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]
新能源及有色金属日报：海内外现货升水维持利多表现-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-25 05:44