尿素日报：新单成交放缓-20251125

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea enterprise transaction atmosphere has weakened recently, and prices may slightly correct. In the medium to long - term, urea supply - demand remains relatively loose due to new capacity release. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start in December. The export quota news has improved the end - of - year export expectations and is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of Northeast compound fertilizers, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off - season storage rhythm [2]. - The strategy for urea investment is: unilateral trading should be in a range - bound mode, cross - period trading should be on hold, and there is no cross - variety trading strategy [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 24, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1638 yuan/ton (-16). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1650 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1630 yuan/ton (-10). The Shandong basis was 2 yuan/ton (+6), the Henan basis was 12 yuan/ton (+16), and the Jiangsu basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+6) [1]. 2. Urea Production - As of November 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64) [1]. 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 24, 2025, the urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-10), and the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively [1]. 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. As of November 24, 2025, the urea export profit was 1007 yuan/ton (-18) [1][2]. 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively, and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 24, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10 million tons (+1.80) [1].