农产品日报：晚富士客商参与度分化，红枣价差因品质扩大-20251125

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple strategy rating: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates strategy rating: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current expectations of apple inventory volume and structure are reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal consumption recovery, inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory adjustment. Apple futures prices declined slightly, while the spot market was stable but with general shipments. The new - season apple inventory was lower than last year, and the consumption was under pressure due to high prices and competition from citrus [3][4]. - Red dates: If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season red dates, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. The red dates futures price rose significantly, but the market was facing inventory pressure and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The market was in a critical period of season and season - change, and the consumption situation would be the focus [8][9]. Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract was 9379 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton (-0.65%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 1879 and AP01 - 1079 increased by 61 respectively [1]. Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2601 contract was 9225 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton (+2.56%) from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 325 decreased by 30 [5]. Group 4: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price declined slightly. The late Fuji spot market in the warehouse was stable but with general shipments. The new - season apple inventory was lower than last year by over 10%, the inventory structure changed, and the consumption was under pressure due to high prices and competition from citrus [3]. Red dates - The red dates futures price rose significantly. The market arrival quality was uneven, the price difference widened, and the acceptance of ordinary goods was low. The new - season red dates were in the process of being picked, the purchase enthusiasm was low, and the inventory pressure was high [8]. Group 5: Strategy Apple - Neutral to bullish. Pay attention to terminal consumption recovery, inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory adjustment, and be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. Red dates - Neutral. Focus on the terminal market's acceptance of new - season red dates and the inventory situation in the circulation link. The near - month contract may have some room to fall [9].