液化石油气日报：外盘偏强运行，市场阻力仍存-20251125

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The external market of LPG is running strongly, but there are still resistances in the market. The LPG market's upward driving force remains insufficient, and the futures market may maintain a volatile operation in the short term [1] 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On November 24, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4440; Northeast market, 4010 - 4150; North China market, 4250 - 4390; East China market, 4170 - 4350; Yangtze River market, 4420 - 4760; Northwest market, 4300 - 4350; South China market, 4300 - 4450 [1] - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 569 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 559 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. Converted into RMB, propane was 4438 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, and butane was 4360 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 561 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 551 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. Converted into RMB, propane was 4376 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, and butane was 4298 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [1][3] - The external market continued the volatile rebound trend. The high discount boosted the CIF cost, and the domestic LPG spot and futures market received some support. With the decline in the commercial volume of domestic refineries and the decrease in arrivals, the LPG fundamentals showed a marginal tightening trend, but the sustainability was questionable. Last week, arrivals and port inventories rebounded again. In the medium term, the overall supply - demand pattern has not reversed. Overseas supplies are relatively abundant, and the downstream chemical demand is restricted by the lack of profit growth momentum, which will limit the upward space of the market [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]