农产品日报：腌腊需求有限，猪价震荡运行-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - In the pig industry, future supply will increase, especially with concentrated slaughtering in December. The supply-demand pattern of loose supply will continue due to supply growth outpacing consumption [2] - In the egg industry, current consumption demand is weak. Although egg production capacity is slowly decreasing, the short - term oversupply situation is hard to change, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4] Market News and Important Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.44%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 11.40 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.57 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on November 24: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.70, up 0.33 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 127.85, up 0.39 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.92 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; beef was 66.43 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; mutton was 62.76 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; eggs were 7.35 yuan/kg, up 1.2%; white - striped chicken was 17.50 yuan/kg, down 0.4% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract yesterday was 3210 yuan/500 kilograms, up 26 yuan (+0.82%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.73 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan [3] - Inventory: On November 24, the national production - link inventory was 1.16 days, unchanged; the circulation - link inventory was 1.35 days, down 0.04 days (-2.88%) [3] Market Analysis Pig - Future supply will increase, especially with concentrated slaughtering of retail farmers and secondary fattening pigs in December. Although demand is growing, the supply growth rate is higher than the consumption rate, so the loose supply pattern will continue [2] Egg - Current consumption demand is at a normal low level. Although temperature drop is conducive to egg storage and there is some replenishment by supermarkets and e - commerce, it has limited impact on overall demand. The short - term oversupply situation is hard to change [4] Strategy Pig - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg - Cautiously bearish [5]