氯碱日报：PVC底部空间缩窄，烧碱现货跟跌-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC shows a narrow - range oscillation with limited downward space. The supply is abundant due to new capacity coming into production, while downstream demand is weak. However, the export window is open, and export orders are increasing, but PVC product exports may be affected by the ongoing anti - dumping investigation in India [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases as device maintenance resumes, and the demand from the alumina side is weak. There is a risk of demand weakening in the non - aluminum sector. The caustic soda spot price in the next two months may be supported by the expected new alumina plants in Guangxi, and cost support still exists [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4496 yuan/ton (+40), the East China basis is - 56 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China basis is 4 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4440 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4500 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 125 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 848 yuan/ton (-28), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 516 yuan/ton (-25), and the PVC export profit is 12.9 US dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.5 tons (-0.7), the social PVC inventory is 52.7 tons (-0.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 80.15% (+0.58%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.31% (+1.18%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 77.48% (+0.77%) [1]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.6 tons (-2.3) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2241 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 134 yuan/ton (-68) [1]. - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 760 yuan/ton (-20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1230 yuan/ton (-20) [2]. - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1380 yuan/ton (-63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 753.5 yuan/ton (+16.7), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 143.47 yuan/ton (-52.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 591.02 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 42.76 tons (+2.54), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.09 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.60% (+0.50%) [2]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The alumina operating rate is 85.46% (+0.09%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 66.55% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 90.09% (+0.59%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the downward space is limited. There is no new device maintenance this week, but some enterprises are considering production cuts due to low prices. New capacity is gradually put into production, and the supply is abundant. The downstream operating rate decreases slightly, with general market purchasing sentiment. The high - level futures warehouse receipts suppress the futures price. The export window is open, but the export of PVC products may be affected by the anti - dumping investigation [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases as device maintenance resumes, and the demand from the alumina side is weak, with overall inventory accumulation. The non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid needs and may weaken in the future. The expected new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price, and cost support still exists [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Narrow - range oscillation with limited downward space. - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait - and - see. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH12 contract and short on the SH01 contract when the price difference is low. - Inter - commodity: None [5].