燃料油日报：市场驱动有限，盘面弱势震荡运行-20251125

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fuel oil market is driven by limited factors and is operating in a weak and volatile manner. Crude oil prices continue to oscillate weakly, and the expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further subside, putting downward pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil. The fundamentals of the fuel oil market itself have limited drivers. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has encountered resistance after a slight repair, and the tightening of local supply is only temporary. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there are still supporting factors, and the lower support for valuation comes from the flexible demand of refineries. In general, the short - term market contradictions of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are limited, and they may fluctuate following the crude oil market. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil does not have a strong trend for the time being [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night - session closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures dropped 0.28% to 2,493 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 0.69% to 3,034 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are in a weak and volatile state. The expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine situation eases, the geopolitical premium may further decline, which suppresses the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market have limited drivers. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has encountered resistance after a slight repair, and the tightening of local supply is only temporary. The supply of Dangote refinery has not completely stopped, the partial units of Azur refinery that were under maintenance due to faults are expected to restart around November 29, and the shipment of Sudanese low - sulfur crude oil is also recovering [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, there are still supporting factors, and the lower support for valuation comes from the flexible demand of refineries [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].