农产品日报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory upward trend, with the near - month leading the rise and the far - month following. The 2601 contract has broken through and reached a new high, and the short - term remains strong. Attention should be paid to whether the 7 and 9 - month contracts can break through the pressure range in mid - October [1]. - Soybeans are expected to oscillate. The CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high, waiting for more details of China's procurement and Sino - US dialogue [1]. - For oilseeds, they are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days, reaching the lowest price since July. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has slightly increased [1]. - Eggs are expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend. The futures price rebounds after reaching the previous low, and short - term long positions should be held with caution. Attention should be paid to the impact of the old chickens' slaughter on the market [1][2]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. The short - term market is in a state of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The industry expects that the inventory of breeding sows in October will fall below 40 million tons, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the 5, 7, and 9 - month contracts to stabilize and rebound [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: From the supply side, farmers' grain - selling rhythm is slow, and the market trading is not active. Central reserve corn procurement prices and spot prices are rising. From the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises' inventory is rising steadily. The 2601 contract has broken through, and the short - term trend is strong [1]. - Soybeans: CBOT soybeans have fallen from a 17 - month high. China purchased 158.4 tons last week and 12.3 tons on Monday. The US soybean inspection volume is in line with market expectations. The market is waiting for more details of Sino - US dialogue and the US government's plan for farmers [1]. - Oilseeds: BMD palm oil has declined for three consecutive days due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and weak demand. Domestic palm oil leads the decline, and the total inventory of the three major oils has increased slightly to 222.4 million tons due to the increase in palm oil inventory [1]. - Eggs: The main 2601 contract has oscillated upwards. Spot prices have increased slightly, and short - term prices in the production areas are mostly stable with a few rising. Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and short - term long positions should be held with caution [1][2]. - Pigs: The main 2601 contract has oscillated, and the far - month 7 and 9 - month contracts have gapped up. Spot prices are generally stable, and the industry expects a supply and price inflection point in the second half of 2026 [2]. Market Information - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop has reached 81%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn has reached 93% of the planned area in the central and southern regions [3]. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key areas of China has increased by 0.1 million tons to 222.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3]. - On November 24, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" have both increased. The average prices of pork, beef, mutton, and eggs in the national agricultural product wholesale market have increased, while the price of white - striped chicken has decreased [3]. - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in China has risen above 2.3 million tons, and it is expected to remain at around 2.3 million tons this week. The estimated total soybean crushing volume in November is about 8.7 million tons [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, oilseeds, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is given [6][7][11][14][17][19][24]. Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years and has rich experience in leading research teams [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience. She has also won many awards in relevant analyst evaluations [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with certain research achievements and media exposure [26].