Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].
新能源及有色金属日报：绝对价格回落刺激社会库存下滑-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-25 05:59