化工日报：伊朗限气影响，EG低位反弹-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of Iran's gas restrictions, EG rebounded from a low level. The price of the EG main contract and the spot price in the East China market both increased. The production profit of ethylene - based and coal - based synthetic gas - based EG decreased. The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, the overseas device changes were limited, the polyester load support was okay but the orders weakened marginally [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3884 yuan/ton (up 76 yuan/ton, +2.00% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 3900 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton, +1.35% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in the East China market was 32 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 70 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based synthetic gas - based EG was - 1101 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - The report shows a chart of the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR [20] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The polyester load was supported by low inventory, but the orders weakened marginally. The report provides data on the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [2][21][28] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged), and according to Longzhong data, it was 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and at the auxiliary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The overall inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]