Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 24, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 8,940 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1%. The position increased by 1,672 lots to 263,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan was 9,745 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 53,315 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.15%. The position increased by 2,161 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,250 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also 52,250 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 4,040 yuan/ton [2]. - Organic silicon enterprises started to respond to the national call against involution, jointly reducing production to support prices. Funds entered the market in advance to layout related varieties. Southwest industrial silicon plants expanded production cuts, but the overall supply in the north remained stable, actively shipping to spot-futures traders, resulting in the price not recovering to the level where Southwest silicon plants could sell easily. Industrial silicon is unlikely to show a trend in the short term and will continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Due to the significant contraction of silicon wafer orders, second- and third-tier manufacturers experienced panic price cuts, but silicon material manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices. The market is not optimistic about the storage of polysilicon production capacity. Coupled with the contraction of terminal demand, there is pressure of high prices but low trading volume on the silicon material end. It is expected that polysilicon will mainly fluctuate weakly, with the bottom anchored to the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the willingness of silicon material enterprises to support prices can continue [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,940 yuan/ton; the price of some oxygen-free 553 silicon remained unchanged, while the price of some oxygenated 553 silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton in some regions; the current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 854 to 41,524, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 14,835 tons to 211,890 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 53,315 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract increased by 525 yuan/ton to 56,290 yuan/ton; the price of some polysilicon materials remained unchanged, and the price of N-type recycled polysilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton; the current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 52,250 yuan/ton; the spot discount widened by 575 yuan/ton to 4,040 yuan/ton; the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 230 to 7,270, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 225,000 tons [4]. - Organic Silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 700 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18] 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][22][25] 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [28][30][31] Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhai Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, an intermediate investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non-ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [35]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non-ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non-ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, highly recognized by customers [35]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non-ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non-ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, highly recognized by customers [36].
工业硅&多晶硅日报-20251125
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-11-25 06:00