FICC日报：美联储鹰鸽对立加剧，关注美国9月PPI数据-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation expectation game phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [4] - The Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in December, and the change in market expectations has impacted short - term overseas assets [3] - The domestic economic foundation still needs to be strengthened, but the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has boosted market sentiment and economic expectations [2] Summary by Related Content Domestic Economic Situation - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released. The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5% [2] - On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs [2] - In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8. China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry also slowed down [2] - On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting studied the implementation of "two major" construction and promoted consumption policies [2] - On November 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan [2][6] - On November 24, the A - share market fluctuated with reduced trading volume, and the military industry sector soared [2] International Economic Situation - Multiple Fed voting members have expressed cautious views on a December interest - rate cut, while Fed Governor Waller supports a cut and Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious approach [3] - The US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, the highest in four months, with the service sector accelerating and the manufacturing sector slowing [3] - The US September seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, the largest increase since April, but the unemployment rate rose and wage growth declined [3] - The Eurozone's November manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.7, unexpectedly falling below the boom - bust line, with manufacturing in Germany and France deteriorating [3] - The EU Council approved the EU's 2026 annual budget, with a total budget commitment of 192.8 billion euros [3][7] Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - The long - term supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ announcing an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA is worthy of attention [4] - In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US talks concluded, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4] - After the short - term sharp adjustment risk in the precious metals sector is cleared, opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [4] International Political Events - On November 23, the US and Ukrainian delegations held talks on the US - proposed "28 - point" new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Geneva, Switzerland, and jointly drafted an updated peace framework text [4][7]