LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动，丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Downstream Demand Differentiated, Focus on Cost Changes" and was published on November 25, 2025 [1] 2. Analyst Information - The analyst is Chen Xinchao, with the investment consulting qualification number Z0020238, and the email is chenxinchao@gtht.com [2] 3. Fundamental Tracking 3.1 Futures Prices - PG2512 closed at 4,278 with a daily decline of 1.25% and a night - session close at 4,299 with a gain of 0.49% - PG2601 closed at 4,205 with a daily decline of 1.57% and a night - session close at 4,232 with a gain of 0.64% - PL2601 closed at 5,917 with a daily gain of 1.21% and a flat night - session - PL2602 closed at 5,890 with a daily gain of 1.50% and a night - session decline of 0.24% - PL2603 closed at 5,881 with a daily gain of 1.27% and a night - session decline of 0.46% [2] 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2512 had a trading volume of 24,771, a decrease of 18,435 from the previous day, and an open interest of 13,312, a decrease of 6,944 - PG2601 had a trading volume of 104,543, an increase of 43,750, and an open interest of 82,716, a decrease of 880 - PL2601 had a trading volume of 2,910, an increase of 1,689, and an open interest of 4,546, a decrease of 231 - PL2602 had a trading volume of 11,874, an increase of 3,776, and an open interest of 6,826, a decrease of 240 - PL2603 had a trading volume of 33,053, an increase of 3,189, and an open interest of 13,425, a decrease of 800 [2] 3.3 Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG12 contract was 122 (previous day: 118) - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG12 contract was 152 (previous day: 148) - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 8 (previous day: 94) - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 28 (previous day: 79) - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 42 (previous day: 29) [2] 3.4 Industry Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 69.6% this week, down from 71.7% last week - The MTBE operating rate was 70.0%, down slightly from 70.3% - The alkylation operating rate was 39.5%, down from 44.3% [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with 0 indicating neutral [6] 5. Market Information 5.1 CP Paper Cargo Prices - On November 24, 2025, the December CP paper cargo price of propane was 489 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 470 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton. The January CP paper cargo price of propane was 491 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton [7] 5.2 Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times date back to 2023, and many end - times are still undetermined [8] 5.3 Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Several LPG factories have maintenance plans, such as Huaxing Petrochemical, Rizhao (China Overseas), etc. The maintenance durations vary, and some end - times are undetermined [8]