纸浆数据日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly. The current futures price is close to the import cost of deliverable goods, with limited room for further increase. Consider 1 - 3 reverse spreads or 1 - 5 reverse spreads [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - Futures Prices (yuan/ton): On November 24, 2025, SP2601 was 5220 (-0.15% day - on - day, -4.64% week - on - week), SP2512 was 4712 (0.17% day - on - day, -3.84% week - on - week), and SP2605 was 5278 (-0.15% day - on - day, -3.55% week - on - week) [6] - Spot Prices (yuan/ton): Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 (-0.92% day - on - day, -2.70% week - on - week), Russian Needle was 5170 (-0.58% day - on - day, -4.26% week - on - week), and Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 (0.00% day - on - day, 0.00% week - on - week) [6] - Outer - Disk Quotes (USD/ton): Chilean Silver Star was 680 (-2.86% month - on - month), Japanese Neko was 530 (3.92% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 590 (0.00% month - on - month) [6] - Import Costs (yuan/ton): Chilean Silver Star was 5559 (-2.83% month - on - month), Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 (3.87% month - on - month), and Chilean Venus was 4830 (0.00% month - on - month) [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Import Volume (10,000 tons): In October 2025, coniferous pulp was 69.1 (0.00% month - on - month) and broadleaf pulp was 131.8 (-2.80% month - on - month) [6] - Domestic Production (10,000 tons): For broadleaf pulp, the production on November 20, 2025, was 23; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 23.7 [6] - Inventory (10,000 tons): As of November 20, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.3 (3.0% week - on - week), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 20.9 [6] - Finished - Paper Production (10,000 tons): Double - offset paper was 20.70, coated paper was 8.00, tissue paper was 28.52, and white cardboard was 36.20 [6] 3.3 Valuation Data - Basis: On November 24, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 458 (quantile level 0.948), and the Silver Star basis was 688 (quantile level 0.905) [6] - Import Profit: For coniferous pulp Silver Star, it was - 159 (quantile level 0.378); for broadleaf pulp Goldfish, it was 56 (quantile level 0.704) [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Chilean Arauco's October offer for coniferous pulp Silver Star was 680 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton; the offer for broadleaf pulp Star was 540 USD/ton, unchanged [6] - Demand: Recently, wood - pulp paper producers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of white cardboard price increases is good, and its production is stable [6] 3.5 Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 217.3 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% week - on - week increase. The inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks [6]