降息暂缓与AI泡沫担忧下全球普跌

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a widespread decline, with MSCI Global down by 2.1%, MSCI Developed Markets down by 2.0%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down by 3.0% [3][7][30] - In the developed markets, the UK FTSE 100 showed the strongest performance with a decline of 1.6%, while the South Korean Composite Index was the weakest, down by 3.9% [7][30] - Among emerging markets, India's Sensex 30 was the best performer, up by 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index in China fell by 6.2% [7][30] Trading Sentiment - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong continued to rise, reaching 17.7%, indicating a historical low in investor sentiment [18][22] - North American manager positions decreased, with the NAAIM manager exposure index dropping to 86.6%, reflecting a high historical sentiment [18][22] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings expectations for 2025 were revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast increasing from 2077 to 2085, particularly in the materials sector [61] - In the US, the S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 remained stable at 272, with the technology sector seeing the most significant upward revision [61] - European earnings expectations remained unchanged, with the STOXX 50's EPS forecast for 2025 holding steady at 333 [61] Economic Outlook - Economic sentiment in China and the US showed signs of marginal improvement, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to mixed non-farm payroll data and Fed rate cut expectations [3][61] - The European Economic Surprise Index significantly declined, influenced by geopolitical risks and political instability [3][61] Fund Flows - The market is increasingly focused on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, with futures indicating a 0.63 rate cut anticipated by the end of the year [48][50] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with Hong Kong experiencing a net inflow of 56 billion HKD [57][60]