国内财政力度减弱，海外降息预期升温

Fiscal Policy Insights - In October, general public budget revenue growth was 3.2% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue grew by 8.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to last month, while non-tax revenue plummeted by 33%, a significant drop of 21.5 percentage points[4] - General public budget expenditure fell by 3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest in nearly a year[6] - Government fund revenue decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, a sharp decline of 23.7 percentage points from the previous month, with land transfer revenue down by 27.5%[6] Market Trends - The equity market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern until the Central Economic Work Conference in December, with limited risk of a significant downturn due to favorable risk appetite and a loose liquidity environment[2] - Recent dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials have alleviated concerns about a rate hike in December, leading to a slight recovery in market risk appetite[2] - The bond market is anticipated to enter a phase of fluctuation in the short term, influenced by changes in market risk preferences and inflation expectations[12] Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, a significant increase from the previous month's initial value of 97,000[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening labor market[16] - Wage growth showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with year-on-year growth remaining stable at 3.8%[16]