航运衍生品数据日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall shipping derivatives market shows a mixed trend. The Shanghai and China export container freight rates have different changes, with some routes experiencing declines and others increases. The EC market is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of January price increase letters [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai and China Export Container Freight Rates - Current and Previous Values and Changes: The current values of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) are 1394 and 1123 respectively, with the previous values being 1451 and 1094, showing a - 3.98% and 2.63% change. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a current value of 1645, a previous value of 1823, and a - 9.76% change; SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1107, a previous value of 1238, and a - 10.58% change; SCFI - US East has a current value of 2384, a previous value of 2600, and a - 8.31% change; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1367, a previous value of 1417, and a - 3.53% change; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1357, a previous value of 1504, and a - 9.77% change; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 2055, a previous value of 2029, and a 1.28% change [5]. 3.2 EC Contracts - Current and Previous Values and Changes: For EC contracts, the current values of EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1358.2, 1488.1, 1110.0, 1779.7, 1568.6, and 1142.1 respectively, with corresponding previous values being 1350.0, 1474.3, 1099.1, 1773.9, 1556.1, and 1133.2, showing changes of 0.61%, 0.94%, 0.99%, 0.33%, 0.80%, and 0.79% [5]. - Position Changes: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1534, 1325, 2491, 6862, 43333, and 16096 respectively, with the previous positions being 1565, 1324, 2597, 7323, 43433, and 15961, showing changes of - 31, 1, - 106, - 461, - 100, and 135 [5]. - Monthly Spread Changes: The current monthly spreads of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are 211.1, 637.6, and 426.5 respectively, with the previous values being 217.8, 640.7, and 422.9, showing changes of - 6.7, - 3.1, and 3.6 [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy - Market Outlook: The EC market is expected to be in a weak - oscillating pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of January price increase letters, and the seasonal change of cargo volume. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of January price increase letters. If the December freight rates are implemented at a 20% discount, the EC2602 contract may test the 1500 - 1700 point range; if the price - holding is successful, the 02 contract may oscillate upwards to the 1800 - 1900 point range [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value [8].