蛋白数据日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support US soybean prices. Without obvious weather issues, the market is expected to shift to trading the supply pressure of South American new crops from December to January. The new - crop discount trend may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - CONB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean output in the 25/26 season will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0% (compared to 58.4% last week, 73.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 67.2%). As of November 13, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 15% (7% last week and 25% last year). There is a risk of relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next few weeks, and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern should be monitored. Domestic soybean meal is expected to see inventory reduction from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The purchasing progress for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and recent downstream long - term contracts for soybean meal have seen high trading volumes with good提货 performance [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7]. Price and Spread - On November 24, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 79. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng was 49, - 11, - 11, - 21, - 21, - 31 respectively. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 10, with a change of 6. The M1 - M5 spread was 196, down 13. The RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, down 3. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 531, down 20 and 16 respectively [4][5]. Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1056, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 145 cents per bushel, with no change. The domestic port and major oil - mill soybean inventories, major oil - mill soybean meal inventories, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, major oil - mill operating rates, and major oil - mill soybean crushing volumes are presented in the form of historical data trends [5].