西南期货早间评论-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Treasury Bonds: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - Stock Index Futures: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - Precious Metals: Temporarily wait and observe, and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: May continue to correct in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [16]. - Ferroalloys: The overall surplus pressure is weakening. After a decline, investors can consider low - level opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19]. - Crude Oil: Focus on short - term long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22]. - Fuel Oil: Temporarily wait and observe for the main contract [25]. - Polyolefins: Focus on long - buying opportunities [27]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to have a wide - range consolidation with limited downward space, and pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - Natural Rubber: Focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - PVC: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [36]. - Urea: The downward space is limited [38]. - PX: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, control positions, and be vigilant about crude oil changes [39]. - PTA: May oscillate in the short term, be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. - Ethylene Glycol: May be under pressure in the short term, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - Short - Fiber: May oscillate following costs in the short term, control risks, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - Bottle Chips: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, and control risks [44]. - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45]. - Copper: Expected to have a high - level oscillation [48]. - Aluminum: Expected to have a phased correction [50]. - Zinc: Expected to oscillate within a range [52]. - Lead: Expected to have a wide - range oscillation [54]. - Tin: The price is expected to rise [55]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate [56]. - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - Palm Oil: Consider buying on corrections [60]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63]. - Cotton: The price is expected to be weak [67][68]. - Sugar: The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [72][73]. - Apples: The price is expected to be strong [75]. - Hogs: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds and follow consumption changes [78]. - Eggs: Consider closing short positions and then temporarily wait and observe [82]. - Corn and Starch: For corn, it is advisable to wait and observe; corn starch may follow the corn market [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.31% to 115.570 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.04% to 108.430 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06% to 105.855 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.460 yuan [5]. - Policy and News: The central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 21, with a net investment of 162.2 billion yuan. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the management measures for central budget - inner investment in rural revitalization [5]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84% [8]. - Industry Situation: As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently [9]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 930.32, up 0.36%, and the night - session closed at 938.68; the silver main contract closed at 11,808, up 1.10%, and the night - session closed at 11,975 [11]. - Industry Situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The slowdown of the US labor market and the expected Fed rate cuts are also beneficial to precious metals [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,090 - 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [12]. - Industry Situation: In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the inventory pressure is obvious [12]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 795 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 675 yuan/ton [14]. - Industry Situation: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak [16]. - Industry Situation: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and the supply has increased. For coke, the fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price has been implemented, but the demand from steel mills may weaken [16]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.50% to 5,630 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.04% to 5,456 yuan/ton [18]. - Industry Situation: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the output has decreased. The overall surplus pressure has weakened [18][19]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting a low [20]. - Industry Situation: The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US has increased for three consecutive weeks. The "28 - point" new plan has brought new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting a low and closed below the moving average group [23]. - Industry Situation: The narrowing of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the new plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for fuel oil prices [24]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market oscillated downward, and the Yuyao LLDPE market had partial price drops [26]. - Industry Situation: The average start - up rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased. The demand for modified PP and PP non - woven fabrics is strong, while the demand for traditional PP products is weak [26]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.81%. The price in Shandong was adjusted down to 11,200 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [28]. - Industry Situation: The international oil price is low, the supply of butadiene is loose, and the supply of synthetic rubber is also loose. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [29]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.10%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 0.53%. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31]. - Industry Situation: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. The inventory has increased slightly [31]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.47%, and the spot price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis was stable [33]. - Industry Situation: The supply of PVC exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has increased this week, and the demand is mixed. The cost and profit have changed [33]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.15%. The price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted down by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened [37]. - Industry Situation: The total production of urea has increased, the start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the demand from downstream products has changed differently. The inventory of urea enterprises is lower than expected [37]. PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX main contract fell 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the short - process profit was stable [39]. - Industry Situation: The PX load has increased, and the import volume has decreased. The short - term PXN spread is strong, and the supply has decreased slightly. The cost side is oscillating, and there is a lack of driving force [39]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 0.04% [40]. - Industry Situation: The PTA load has decreased, the polyester load is stable, and the processing fee has declined. The cost side is weak, and the raw material PX price support is limited [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 1.68% [41]. - Industry Situation: The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port inventory is stable, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is weak [41]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.91% [42]. - Industry Situation: The short - fiber supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 0.28% [44]. - Industry Situation: The raw material price support is limited, the bottle chips load is stable, the export growth rate has slowed down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The main logic lies in the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 2.88% to 90,480 yuan/ton [45]. - Industry Situation: The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [45]. Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [46]. - Industry Situation: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the smelting profit is poor, and the demand from the real economy is weak. The global liquidity is loose, which provides support for copper prices [47]. Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,405 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [49]. - Industry Situation: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, the alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is seasonally weak, and the aluminum price may be under pressure in the short term [49]. Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,320 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [51]. - Industry Situation: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined rapidly, and some smelting enterprises are in losses. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [51]. Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.58% [53]. - Industry Situation: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of secondary lead is growing slowly, and the demand from the battery sector is mixed. The inventory has increased [53]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.05% to 294,380 yuan/ton [55]. - Industry Situation: The supply of tin ore is tight, the production of smelters is affected, and the demand has certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.69% to 116,100 yuan/ton [56]. - Industry Situation: The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron plants is affected, and the demand from the stainless steel sector is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and the market is in surplus [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.20% to 3,011 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.46% to 8,168 yuan/ton [57]. - Industry Situation: The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, and the US soybean harvest is basically completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [57][58]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen for three consecutive days. The export volume from November 1 - 20 decreased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [59]. - Industry Situation: The price of palm oil may be affected by the exchange rate and demand. The production may decline seasonally, and the inventory may decrease [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: The Canadian rapeseed rose slightly. The price of rapeseed oil is affected by the crude oil price. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed [61][62]. - Industry Situation: The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level in the past 7 years, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level [62]. Cotton - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated higher, and the overnight external cotton rebounded slightly [64]. - Industry Situation: The USDA has raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is high, and the downstream demand is weak [64][67]. Sugar - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly, and the overnight external raw sugar