Dongguan Securities·2025-11-25 07:26Core Viewpoints - The current Chinese real estate market is undergoing the deepest and longest adjustment period in history, with multiple indicators reverting to levels seen over a decade ago [5][66][77] - The sustained large losses of real estate companies will accelerate industry reshuffling and optimize the competitive landscape [5][66][77] - Future policies may be further intensified, and with China's economic resilience, the economic growth rate is expected to remain within a reasonable range, which could help shorten the current adjustment cycle [5][66][77] Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing nationwide has decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount has dropped by 7.9% [19][20] - The real estate development investment completion amount has fallen from a peak of 14.76 trillion yuan in 2021 to 10.02 trillion yuan in 2024, with an expected further decline to approximately 9 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a nearly 40% drop from the peak [66][50] - The average net asset return rate for listed real estate companies as of the end of Q3 2025 is -4.74%, ranking last among 31 industry sectors [45][66] Group 2: Performance of Real Estate Companies - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed real estate companies reported a total operating revenue of 1.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11% [39][66] - The operating profit for the same period was -35.85 billion yuan, marking the first recorded loss since statistics began [39][66] - The net profit and attributable net profit were -58.52 billion yuan and -64.74 billion yuan, respectively, with losses significantly widening compared to the previous year [39][66] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continued "bottoming" period for the real estate market, with historical comparisons suggesting that while the downward trend may be nearing its end, the timeline for recovery could still be extended [66][70] - The real estate market is expected to experience a three-phase valuation recovery process, with the current phase being the second, which requires stabilization and recovery of the fundamental market conditions [77][78] - Investment targets include stable central state-owned enterprises and regional leaders focused on first- and second-tier cities, which are expected to gain market share during the downturn [77][80]