光储行业周报:10月光伏出口环比下滑,储能需求旺盛-20251125
Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-11-25 07:20

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market [2][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong demand for energy storage and power batteries, with a notable recovery in raw material and cell prices [2][5]. - The photovoltaic (PV) component production is expected to be below 44.5 GW in November 2025, with potential for profit recovery leading to increased production [5][9]. - The report suggests focusing on energy storage-related companies due to significant growth in tender capacity for energy storage projects [2][21]. Summary by Sections Production - PV component production has been stable since the second half of 2025, with leading companies slightly increasing production while most others are reducing to clear inventory [5]. - In November 2025, the production of power, storage, and consumer batteries in China is projected to reach 209 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 64.6% [5][9]. Prices - As of November 21, 2025, the price of polysilicon remains stable at 52.00 CNY/kg, while the average price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers has decreased to 1.28 CNY/piece [9][16]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate battery storage systems is reported at 0.5547 CNY/Wh, with a month-on-month increase of 10% [16][21]. Domestic Demand - In September 2025, the domestic PV installation capacity increased by 31.3% month-on-month to 9.7 GW, but saw a year-on-year decline of 53.8% [20][21]. - The cumulative new PV installation from January to September 2025 reached 240.27 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.3% [20]. Overseas Demand - In October 2025, the export value of PV components was approximately 2.258 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.39% but a month-on-month decrease of 19.34% [26][27]. - The cumulative export value from January to October 2025 reached 23.473 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 4.89% [26].