Leedarson IoT(SH:605365) Huaxin Securities·2025-11-25 08:41Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [1]. Core Views - The company's short-term export performance is under pressure, but its own brand and overseas capacity layout are strengthening its long-term resilience [5][6]. - The lighting industry is experiencing overall export pressure, with significant deceleration in growth during the third quarter [5]. - The company has seen a notable decline in performance, with a third-quarter revenue of 1.907 billion yuan, down 2.74% year-on-year, and a net profit of 58 million yuan, down 55.18% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%, while net profit was 127 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.35% [4]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 1.907 billion yuan and a net profit of 58 million yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability [4][5]. Market Conditions - The overall export of the lighting industry is under pressure, with a reported 6% year-on-year decline in total export value for lighting products in the first half of 2025 [5]. - Approximately 90% of the company's revenue comes from overseas markets, making it vulnerable to weak export demand and pricing pressures from clients [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has been enhancing its own brand strategy, which is expected to become a key growth driver in the medium to long term [8]. - The company has established a manufacturing base in Thailand to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariff policies, with production capacity expected to ramp up in the coming years [6]. Earnings Forecast - Despite short-term profitability pressures, the company is expected to see a gradual improvement in operational quality as overseas capacity ramps up and brand business share increases [9]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 6.882 billion, 7.242 billion, and 7.752 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.39, 0.54, and 0.69 yuan [9].