港股、海外周观察：美联储降息预期摇摆下的全球市场

Core Insights - The report suggests that short-term risk factors for the Hong Kong stock market are decreasing, but a confirmation of the rebound requires catalysts. The current position is considered attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is fluctuating, which has led to a relatively weak performance in overseas markets represented by US stocks. An increase in rate cut expectations could benefit the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December may refocus market attention on policy, which has not yet been priced in [1] - The narrative surrounding the AI technology bubble in US markets has weakened, leading to significant corrections in Hong Kong's tech sector, which now presents an attractive allocation opportunity [1] - Despite short-term macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remaining unresolved, a balanced allocation strategy is still recommended, with relative strength in dividends [1] Market Performance - In the past week, both developed and emerging markets experienced declines, with emerging markets down 3.7% and developed markets down 2.3% [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 7.2%, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 5.1%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect dropped by 5.3%. All sectors showed varying degrees of decline, with southbound funds primarily flowing into non-essential consumer sectors and out of the energy sector [4] US Market Analysis - The Nasdaq Composite led the decline in US markets with a drop of 2.7%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell by 1.9%. The healthcare and consumer staples sectors outperformed, while energy and information technology sectors lagged [1] - The non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with job additions significantly exceeding expectations at 119,000, but the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. Average hourly wages increased by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [1][2] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of profits from AI projects have resurfaced, despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, leading to a broader risk-off sentiment in the tech sector [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance remains generally hawkish, with most members expressing reservations about a December rate cut. However, Vice Chairman Williams indicated some room for a rate cut due to increased downside risks to employment and alleviated inflationary pressures, causing the probability of a December rate cut to rise from 33% to 60% [2][3] Investment Trends - The report highlights a significant net inflow into global stock ETFs amounting to $101.61 billion, with the US stock ETFs seeing the largest inflow of $26.71 billion. Emerging markets, particularly Chinese stock ETFs, also saw notable inflows [7][39] - In terms of sector performance, the top three sectors for net inflows were materials, technology, and healthcare, while financials, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors experienced the largest outflows [8][39]