有色金属周报——镍与不锈钢：低位震荡-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For electrolytic nickel, the strategy is to wait and see, with an expected operating range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [4][5][94] - For stainless steel, the strategy is to sell short on rallies, with an expected operating range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][120][121] 2. Core Views - The nickel market has a loose fundamental situation, high inventory, but low valuation. With fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations, nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [5][94] - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, a persistently loose fundamental situation, and weakening cost support. It is expected to remain weak [6][121] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 3.21%. Trading volume reached 566,800 lots (+116,200), and open interest reached 160,700 lots (+48,500). LME nickel fell 1.82% weekly, with trading volume of 43,100 lots (+2,000) [10] - The basis premium was 2,220 yuan/ton [12] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores each dropped by 1 dollar/wet ton, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton [16] - In October, the Philippines' nickel - ore exports rebounded. China's nickel - ore imports reached 4.68 million tons, a 23.4% month - on - month decrease and an 11.0% year - on - year increase [22] - Last week, the nickel - ore arrival volume decreased by 378,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 250,000 wet tons [24] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 13 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and the premium to scrap stainless steel both narrowed [29] - In October, China's nickel - iron imports were 905,000 tons, a 16.6% month - on - month decrease and a 31.0% year - on - year increase. November imports are expected to remain stable [32] - BF profit contracted, and the operating rate declined. RKEF losses widened, but the operating rate rose [36] - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [40] - Nickel - iron inventory accumulated [42] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel decreased [46] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed [50] - In October, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [54] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In November, stainless - steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel was basically flat [59] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. November's import and export volumes are expected to decline [63] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The decline in pure - nickel prices was greater than that of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely small [68] - In November, the production schedule of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production schedule of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [73] - In November, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [75] - In October, new - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [81] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories decreased [82] - Last week, the pure - nickel inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged, and the total social inventory in six regions decreased by 855 tons [87] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, high - grade nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte [93] 2.1 Stainless - Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless - steel futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.97%. The basis shrank to 1,040 yuan/ton. Trading volume reached 616,600 lots (+126,300), and open interest reached 171,200 lots (+3,500) [97] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost - side support [100] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel decreased, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel narrowed, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel decreased [105] 2.3 Fundamentals - In November, stainless - steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel was basically flat [109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased, while imports increased. November's import and export volumes are expected to decline [112] 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic social inventory of stainless steel decreased. 200 - series and 300 - series inventories decreased, while 400 - series inventory increased [118] 2.5 Market Outlook - The strategy for stainless steel is to sell short on rallies, with an expected operating range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Due to weak demand, a loose fundamental situation, and weakening costs, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [6][120][121]