Bank of China Securities·2025-11-25 09:14Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - New home transaction area has seen a month-on-month increase of 6.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 31.5%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous week [7] - The second-hand housing market also shows a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%, with a similar trend of narrowing decline [7] - The report highlights the implementation of a housing inspection system in Zhengzhou, targeting residential properties aged 30 years and above [7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area in 40 cities is 206.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.5% [18] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities is 11,343 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.2% [42] - The second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities is 169.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.2% [50] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities is 1,836.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 95.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 39.1% [67] - The total transaction price of land is 362.5 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 56.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 60.3% [67] - The average floor price of land is 1,973.6 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decrease of 20.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.8% [67] 3. Policy Overview - The report notes that the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a continuous decline in the inventory of unsold commercial housing, with a reduction of 3.22 million square meters from the previous month [106] - The report emphasizes the government's focus on controlling new supply and optimizing existing inventory to alleviate market pressure [106] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou [7] - It also highlights smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, such as Poly Real Estate Group [7] - Companies exploring new consumption scenarios and operational models in commercial real estate, like Joy City and China Resources, are also recommended [7]